The Q1 2025 earnings season has officially begun, with 6% of S&P 500 companies having reported results. The market expects earnings to grow by +7.3% and revenue to rise by +4.3% this quarter. A total of 33 S&P 500 companies, including 5 Dow 30 components, are scheduled to report this week. Additionally, several Federal Reserve officials are expected to deliver public remarks.

Last week, ES (S&P 500 futures) stabilized and rebounded, but met resistance near the zone highlighted in our earlier futures market commentary (around 20530 for NQ, below 5845 for ES, and below 2145 for RTY). We’ve repeatedly emphasized that this is merely a rebound—not yet a reversal. Markets are born in despair, grow in hesitation (which is where we are now), and end in euphoria. It’s essential to create a trading plan in advance and patiently wait for key support and resistance levels before taking action.

The Q4 2024 earnings season is nearing its end, with S&P 500 companies posting a robust 18.2% YoY earnings growth, significantly beating prior market expectations. Revenue grew 5.3% YoY. The current forward P/E ratio stands at 20.7.

Today marks this month’s options expiration. Overnight news was relatively quiet. Between 9:45–10:00 AM, the initial readings for this month’s Services and Manufacturing PMI, Consumer Sentiment Index, and Existing Home Sales data from the previous month will be released.

ES (S&P 500 futures) hit the previously highlighted target and resistance near 6147 (with a high of 6146.75), and the market remains in a pattern of choppy consolidation at high levels. As often said, markets are born in despair (always works), grow in hesitation, and end in euphoria. We’ve repeatedly mentioned that this leg of the futures rebound would struggle to reach new highs. It’s crucial to plan trades in advance and patiently wait for key support and resistance zones before acting.