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May ADP jobs report was much weaker than expected — 37K actual vs. 115K expected vs. 60K previous. Right after the data came out, Trump posted calling on the Fed to cut rates quickly. Treasury yields dropped sharply. If 10- and 20-year yields fall below 4.3% and 4.8%, the trend could reverse.
Important level to watch - 24215, May 30th session high
98% of S&P 500 big companies have reported Q1 2025 earnings. Earnings grew +13.3% year over year. Revenue grew +4.9%. The forward P/E ratio is 21.3.
The last trading day of May. So far, the S&P is up 343 points this month, with +6.16%. This is the biggest monthly gain since November 2023. Whether it can hold these gains by the close is the key focus. The Nasdaq 100 is currently up +9.16% for the month.
U.S. trade court ruled Trump’s reciprocal tariffs are illegal. The White House plans to appeal to the Supreme Court. Trade war? It’s turning into a U.S. internal war. One word: chaos!
📆 Date: May 27, 2025
The Q1 earnings season is almost over. 96% of S&P 500 companies have reported, with earnings up 12.9% year-over-year and revenue up 4.8%. The forward P/E is now 21.1.
• The S&P 500 fell -0.04%, the Dow stayed flat, and the Nasdaq rose slightly by +0.15%.
1. Bid-to-Cover Ratio
Reports say Trump failed to reach a deal on SALT during a Republican meeting yesterday. There are also reports that Israel may take action against Iran on its own. Stock indexes keep rising, but bond yields are also going up. In June, a large number of bonds will need to be rolled over, adding pressure.
1. Moody’s Downgrades U.S.
Q1 earnings season is nearly over. 92% of S&P 500 companies have reported. Profits are up 13.6% year-over-year, and revenue is up 4.8%. The forward P/E ratio is 21.4.
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